Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4224
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
C5 4224 · AMA → IAH
departs 9:00 AM CT · arrives 10:47 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Wed 10/28 12%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 18%
Sat 10/31 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave AMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↓
9am departures from AMA are usually not late
Weather at each end
AMA (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAH (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.