Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4228
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
C5 4228 · HOB → IAH
departs 8:10 AM MT · arrives 10:54 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Wed 10/28 16%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 20%
Sat 10/31 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave HOB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
HOB (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.07 in
IAH (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.