C5 4237 · HOB → IAH

departs 8:16 AM MT · arrives 10:59 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at HOB that day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

HOB (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4.33333 mi Precip0.40 in

IAH (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

C5 4237 · HOB → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?