Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4241
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
C5 4241 · IAD → DAY
departs 12:42 PM ET · arrives 2:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 21%
Sat 10/31 16%
Sun 11/1 17%
Mon 11/2 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAY more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at DAY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DAY?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
C5's recent on-time record
↑
IAD is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DAY
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
DAY (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.