Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4285
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
C5 4285 · ORF → IAD
departs 3:10 PM ET · arrives 4:18 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Wed 10/28 16%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 33%
Sat 10/31 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late
↑
IAD is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORF
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
Weather at each end
ORF (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.