Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4286
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
C5 4286 · IAH → HOB
departs 7:45 PM CT · arrives 8:31 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Wed 10/28 16%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 22%
Sat 10/31 12%
Sun 11/1 13%
Mon 11/2 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOB more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at HOB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to HOB?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2.66667 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at HOB that day
↑
7pm departures from IAH are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
HOB usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HOB (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2.66667 mi Precip 0.30 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.