Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4287
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
C5 4287 · IAH → HRL
departs 12:16 PM CT · arrives 1:42 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Wed 10/28 9%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 25%
Sat 10/31 16%
Sun 11/1 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at HRL more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HRL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at HRL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HRL?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from IAH are often late
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↓
HRL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HRL (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.