Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4314
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
C5 4314 · MOB → IAD
departs 12:55 PM CT · arrives 4:34 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Wed 10/28 15%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 20%
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1 16%
Mon 11/2 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave MOB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late
↑
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Cloud base down to 100 ft forecast at IAD that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MOB
Weather at each end
MOB (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 9,533 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAD (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.