Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4332
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
C5 4332 · ROA → IAD
departs 10:35 AM ET · arrives 11:48 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Wed 10/28 15%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 17%
Sat 10/31 23%
Sun 11/1 24%
Mon 11/2 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave ROA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Other factors
↑
ROA is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
ROA is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
ROA (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
IAD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.