Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4863
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
C5 4863 · LBB → IAH
departs 6:51 AM CT · arrives 8:58 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Wed 10/28 15%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 21%
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1 14%
Mon 11/2 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave LBB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LBB is prone to delays
↑
C5's recent on-time record
↑
IAH is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↓
6am departures from LBB are usually not late
Weather at each end
LBB (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,233 ft Visibility 3.53333 mi Precip 0.21 in
IAH (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.