Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4919
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
C5 4919 · IAH → HRL
departs 8:31 PM CT · arrives 9:56 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 25%
Sat 10/31 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at HRL more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HRL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at HRL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HRL?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from IAH are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into HRL at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↓
HRL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
HRL (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.