Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4923
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
C5 4923 · MOB → IAH
departs 5:00 PM CT · arrives 7:05 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Thu 10/29
Sat 10/31 15%
Sun 11/1 16%
Mon 11/2 24%
Tue 11/3 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave MOB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MOB
Weather at each end
MOB (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAH (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.