Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4940
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
C5 4940 · CHO → IAD
departs 7:56 PM ET · arrives 8:47 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Wed 10/28 16%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 29%
Sat 10/31 23%
Sun 11/1 25%
Mon 11/2 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave CHO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Other factors
↓
Cloud base down to 100 ft forecast at IAD that day
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at CHO that day
Weather at each end
CHO (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
IAD (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.