Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4945
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
C5 4945 · IAD → ITH
departs 5:36 PM ET · arrives 6:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Wed 10/28 14%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 24%
Sat 10/31 26%
Sun 11/1 20%
Mon 11/2 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at ITH more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ITH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at ITH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ITH?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from IAD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Cloud base down to 100 ft forecast at IAD that day
↓
Arrivals into ITH at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
ITH (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.