Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

COPA · FLIGHT CM 253 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

CM 253 · LAS → PTY

departs 12:34 AM PT · arrives 8:46 AM EST

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at PTY more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PTY?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 12am departures from LAS are often late

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at PTY that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ PTY usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PTY (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

CM 253 · LAS → PTY

Odds over time

How late will it get to PTY?