Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

COPA · FLIGHT CM 302 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

CM 302 · PTY → LAX

departs 6:27 PM EST · arrives 11:02 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at PTY that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

PTY (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

CM 302 · PTY → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?