Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

COPA · FLIGHT CM 382 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

CM 382 · PTY → SFO

departs 6:08 PM EST · arrives 11:19 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at PTY that day

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

PTY (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

CM 382 · PTY → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?