Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

COPA · FLIGHT CM 450 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

CM 450 · PTY → SJU

departs 6:36 PM EST · arrives 10:28 PM AT

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SJU?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at PTY that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into SJU at that hour are often late

↓ CM's recent on-time record

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PTY (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

SJU (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

CM 450 · PTY → SJU

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJU?