Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

COPA · FLIGHT CM 459 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

CM 459 · MCO → PTY

departs 5:00 PM ET · arrives 7:21 PM EST

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at PTY more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±6 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PTY?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at PTY that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ PTY usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

PTY (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

CM 459 · MCO → PTY

Odds over time

How late will it get to PTY?