Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

COPA · FLIGHT CM 476 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

CM 476 · PTY → DEN

departs 12:56 PM EST · arrives 5:59 PM MT

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±3 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at PTY that day

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ DEN usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PTY (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

CM 476 · PTY → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?