Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
CATHAY PACIFIC · FLIGHT CX 811
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
CX 811 · BOS → HKG
departs 1:45 AM ET · arrives 4:48 AM HKT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Wed 10/28 10%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 16%
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1 15%
Mon 11/2 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at HKG more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.1d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HKG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at HKG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HKG?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Other factors
↑
BOS is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HKG
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 19 kt
Ceiling none (clear)
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
HKG (destination)
Gusts 8 kt
Ceiling none (clear)
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.