Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
CATHAY PACIFIC · FLIGHT CX 870
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
CX 870 · HKG → SFO
departs 1:25 PM HKT · arrives 10:13 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Wed 10/28 18%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 31%
Sat 10/31 26%
Sun 11/1 38%
Mon 11/2 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.1d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave HKG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HKG
Weather at each end
HKG (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.