Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1001
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
DL 1001 · ATL → JAX
departs 9:45 PM ET · arrives 11:02 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Sun 11/1 33%
Mon 11/2 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into JAX at that hour are often late
↓
Cloud base down to 1,400 ft forecast at ATL that day
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
JAX (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.