Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1166
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
DL 1166 · SAT → JFK
departs 1:17 PM CT · arrives 6:16 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Wed 10/28 13%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 40%
Sat 10/31 27%
Sun 11/1 39%
Mon 11/2 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 1,400 ft forecast at SAT that day
↑
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.07 in
JFK (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.