Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1186
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Today
DL 1186 · TUL → ATL
departs 4:24 PM CT · arrives 7:37 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 12h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/30 15%
Sun 11/1 14%
Mon 11/2 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at TUL
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
TUL (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
ATL (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.