Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1398
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
DL 1398 · BOS → MSY
departs 11:20 AM ET · arrives 1:56 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Wed 10/28 7%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 34%
Sat 10/31 20%
Sun 11/1 17%
Mon 11/2 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from BOS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSY (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.