Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1407
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
DL 1407 · DTW → RDU
departs 4:02 PM ET · arrives 5:47 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Wed 10/28 9%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 24%
Sat 10/31 19%
Sun 11/1 25%
Mon 11/2 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from DTW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DL's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.