Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1591
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
DL 1591 · ATL → TPA
departs 9:40 PM ET · arrives 11:12 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Sun 11/1 50%
Mon 11/2 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Cloud base down to 1,400 ft forecast at ATL that day
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.