Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1644
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Yesterday
DL 1644 · DTW → DEN
departs 8:07 PM ET · arrives 9:06 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Today 22%
Sun 11/1 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from DTW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.11 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.