Schedule: FAA flight plans.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 227 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Thursday, October 29

DL 227 · JFK → GRU

took off 10:45 PM ET · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 10:24 PM ET → 9:04 AM -03)

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at GRU more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to GRU?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ JFK is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Arrivals into GRU at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

GRU (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 227 · JFK → GRU

Odds over time

How late will it get to GRU?