Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2458
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
DL 2458 · DTW → SAT
departs 1:41 PM ET · arrives 3:51 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Wed 10/28 13%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 27%
Sat 10/31 20%
Sun 11/1 24%
Mon 11/2 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SAT is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 1,400 ft forecast at SAT that day
↑
1pm departures from DTW are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
SAT (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.