Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2480
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
DL 2480 · BWI → DTW
departs 5:27 PM ET · arrives 7:09 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Wed 10/28 8%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 25%
Sat 10/31 26%
Sun 11/1 26%
Mon 11/2 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late
↑
5pm departures from BWI are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.