Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2530
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
DL 2530 · SAN → SEA
departs 7:51 AM PT · arrives 10:42 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Wed 10/28 19%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 23%
Sat 10/31 14%
Sun 11/1 22%
Mon 11/2 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
SEA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
This flight has been late 10% of the time recently
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 4,733 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.