Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2533
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
DL 2533 · SEA → SAN
departs 9:45 AM PT · arrives 12:39 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Wed 10/28 17%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 21%
Sat 10/31 20%
Sun 11/1 24%
Mon 11/2 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
DL's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 4,733 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.