Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2572
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
DL 2572 · SEA → SAN
departs 12:14 PM PT · arrives 3:16 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Wed 10/28 16%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 23%
Sat 10/31 19%
Sun 11/1 25%
Mon 11/2 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
12pm departures from SEA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 4,733 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.