Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2731
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Yesterday
DL 2731 · ATL → ORF
departs 8:47 PM ET · arrives 10:31 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Today 32%
Sun 11/1 28%
Mon 11/2 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at ORF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORF?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into ORF at that hour are often late
↓
Cloud base down to 1,400 ft forecast at ATL that day
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
ORF (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.