Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2845
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
DL 2845 · MCO → DTW
departs 9:02 AM ET · arrives 11:45 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Wed 10/28 10%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 13%
Sat 10/31 13%
Sun 11/1 13%
Mon 11/2 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
MCO is busy at that time
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
DTW (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.