Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2854
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
DL 2854 · SEA → LAX
departs 8:25 PM PT · arrives 11:15 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Sun 11/1 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from SEA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 3,100 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.12 in
LAX (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.