Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2934
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
DL 2934 · DTW → JFK
departs 3:45 PM ET · arrives 5:26 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Wed 10/28 14%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 51%
Sat 10/31 32%
Sun 11/1 44%
Mon 11/2 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↑
3pm departures from DTW are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
JFK (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.