Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 3109
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Today
DL 3109 · ATL → SRQ
departs 3:38 PM ET · arrives 5:17 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 17h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/30 12%
Sun 11/1 16%
Mon 11/2 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at SRQ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SRQ?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
ATL is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SRQ (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.