Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 421 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

DL 421 · DTW → LAS

departs 12:15 PM ET · arrives 1:28 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ 12pm departures from DTW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

LAS (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 421 · DTW → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?