Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 462 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

DL 462 · LAX → RDU

departs 10:21 AM PT · arrives 6:17 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from LAX are often late

↑ Arrivals into RDU at that hour are often late

↑ LAX is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling4,400 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 462 · LAX → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?