Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 471 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Yesterday

DL 471 · LAX → ATL

departs 5:17 PM PT · arrives 12:43 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ATL?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late

↑ LAX is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Cloud base down to 1,400 ft forecast at ATL that day

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ATL (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 471 · LAX → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?