Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 548 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

DL 548 · PHX → JFK

departs 10:35 PM MT · arrives 6:27 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↓ This flight has been late 13% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 548 · PHX → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?