Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 700 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Yesterday

DL 700 · DTW → SAN

departs 8:23 PM ET · arrives 10:01 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from DTW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.11 in

SAN (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 700 · DTW → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?