Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 791 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

DL 791 · PHX → JFK

departs 11:40 AM MT · arrives 8:01 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 57h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↑ 11am departures from PHX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 791 · PHX → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?