Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 806 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

DL 806 · JFK → LAS

departs 5:00 PM ET · arrives 7:50 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±8 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 806 · JFK → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?