Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 851 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

DL 851 · LAS → DTW

departs 10:36 PM PT · arrives 5:29 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±0 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling8,571 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.11 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 851 · LAS → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?