Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 86 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Yesterday

DL 86 · DTW → FRA

departs 7:40 PM ET · arrives 8:31 AM CET

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at FRA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to FRA?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from DTW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

↓ FRA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.11 in

FRA (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 86 · DTW → FRA

Odds over time

How late will it get to FRA?