DL 8786 · LEX → LGA

departs 2:50 PM ET · arrives 4:41 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LEX

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at LGA that day

Weather at each end

LEX (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 8786 · LEX → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?